Tuesday, February 12, 2008

When Do We Get Our Post-Strike TV Shows?

By FRAZIER MOORE .

NEW YORK (AP) — No more writers on picket lines. No more network TV bosses scrambling for replacement shows. But enough about them. What about us? Two simple questions prey on every viewer's mind: When will my favorite scripted programs be back with new episodes? And, WILL my favorite shows be back?

Here are the short-and-sweet answers from industry insiders after the three-month Hollywood writers' strike:

_ Many hit series (such as ABC's "Desperate Housewives" and "Grey's Anatomy," as well as CBS' "CSI" trio) will be back this spring for what's left of the current season, with anywhere from four to seven new episodes. But don't bet on weaker, "on-the-bubble" shows (NBC's "Bionic Woman" and CBS' "Moonlight," for example) returning until fall, if then.

_ And be prepared to muster a little more patience. A minimum of four weeks will be needed for producers to get the first post-strike episode of comedies (such as CBS' "Two and a Half Men" and NBC's "My Name Is Earl") started from scratch and back on the air; a drama will require six to eight weeks from concept to broadcast.

But there's no simple rule of thumb, added these TV execs, most of whom agreed to speak only on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to talk to the media. Every show is its own special case.

If a series had a script near completion when the strike was called in November, it's got a head start resuming production now.

For example, CBS' "Criminal Minds" had one script in progress and a network-approved outline for another, said co-executive producer Chris Mundy, who cited something else that gives his show an advantage: "We didn't have to break down our sets. We're luckier than most."

Meanwhile, a complicated serial drama with vast technical demands — notably the NBC hit "Heroes" — may not be deemed worth returning this season at all. The cost of ramping up for such a production may not justify that expense when only a handful of episodes are being ordered.

Other shows, including ABC's "Dirty Sexy Money" and NBC's "Chuck," also aren't expected until fall. And Fox's "24" is unlikely to be back until early 2009.

Adding to this vexing calculus, each network will have to integrate its returning series into a prime-time schedule that, during the strike, has adapted to the absence of those shows with substitute fare.

Networks will also continue rolling out new series that were in the can before the strike. A CBS sitcom, "Welcome to the Captain," debuted just last week, as did NBC's dramedy "Lipstick Jungle." Fox has no fewer than four new dramas and comedies on tap.

No wonder if, amid all this turmoil, the networks will be rationing their new, post-strike product. They say they don't want to put fresh episodes at risk of getting lost in the shuffle.

"The networks will have to decide the tipping point: How many new shows is too many?" said Katherine Pope, president of Universal Media Studios, which, like NBC, is part of NBC Universal.

But a potential game-changer could be in the cards: One or more networks might elect to extend the season beyond May, which, of course, would call for even more new episodes. The chances of that happening aren't great. Viewership traditionally dips during summer months, and networks don't like running their best stuff when viewers aren't watching. But the post-strike landscape may not bow to tradition any more than the season has thus far.

Next season, too, is already being shaped by the strike.

NBC wants us to know it's been planning ahead. It recently announced a series pickup for the American adaptation of "Kath & Kim," a comedy hit in Australia. Likely to premiere this fall, it was a straight-to-series order that required no pilot.

But overall, the so-called development process for next fall has been delayed by the strike. Don't expect the usual crush of freshman shows right after Labor Day. And that looming void could have an impact on what we see (or don't see) this spring. In some cases, a network will opt to bank a series' remaining episodes to help fill the autumn programming gap.

These are decisions that must be made quickly, and industry execs say they prepared for numerous contingencies as the strike wore on.

"But until the studio and network and show runner for each series can get in a room together and talk, we don't have answers," said a studio executive, who spoke on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to speak to the media. Many such meetings were expected to take place Monday.

Damon Lindelof is eager for some answers. An executive producer of ABC's mystery serial "Lost," he should learn this week what his show's future holds as it closes out its fourth season.

"Lost" has been back on the air just two weeks. But the strike meant a planned 16-episode shooting schedule was halted after just eight episodes were shot. Fans braced themselves for no more this season.

"But we very much want to come back and do as many episodes as possible," said Lindelof, who then listed a few issues that first need to be settled.

"How many episodes can best serve our story? And what are the production realities?" He noted that the shooting facility in Hawaii, 2,500 miles from his Los Angeles office, had been shuttered since Thanksgiving. The crew has dispersed, the huge cast has scattered.

The first new post-strike episode of "Lost" could possibly be ready for broadcast the week after episode eight appears, he said. There likely would be three or four more after that.

Could there be even more?

"I'd be surprised if the network wanted to air episodes deep into the summer," he said. But if all the pieces fell into place, "Lost" fans would be blessed: "I don't see why we couldn't deliver all eight remaining episodes."

That kind of zeal should warm viewers' hearts. Lindelof and the rest of TV's creative community seem delighted to be back.

Almost as delighted as we are.

Writers Strike: Worth It?


What was THAT all about? A three-and-a-half month strike. $2 billion hit on the LA economy. Thousands put out of work. About 70 "housekeeping deals" - writers put on retainer - killed outright. Dozens, hundreds of shows shut down. strike.jpg

In the very cold light of dawn, the new deal doesn't really look all that great given the fall-out. On the page, the numbers actually look kinda puny. After all that - all that picketing, too - here's (part of) what writers ended up with: "residuals [will be] paid at 0.36 percent of distributors gross receipts for the first 100,000 downloads of a TV program and the first 50,000 downloads of a feature. After that, residuals are paid at 0.7 percent of distributors gross receipts for television programs and 0.65 percent for feature films.”

And that's just in the third year of this deal.

Now, let's get out my calculator - five of the most dangerous words in the English language - and see what this comes to. If we're talking (hypothetically) about "The Office" which goes for $1.99 (although it's no longer available on iTunes, but just stay with me here), and you reach the threshold of 100,000 copies downloaded, then that comes...to the grand total...of...$720.00.

In Los Angeles, I believe, that's the typical weekly grocery bill.

That's if you get to 100 large. Most shows don't do that well. Few do in fact. Of, course, my math could be all wrong (probably is) and I'm prejudiced by what appear to be very picayune figures. The Writers Guild would say that I've missed the point. This is about the FUTURE. This is about erasing PAST INJUSTICES. This is about GETTING OUR FAIR SHARE and tapping into the DISTRIBUTION PIPELINE OF THE NEXT DECADE. In that sense, they're certainly right. The producers wanted to indefinitely delay any new media payout pending a "careful industry study." Oh, yeah, we know all about THOSE careful industry studies.

For writers, the crucible that this strike was forged upon were DVDs. Twenty years ago, scribes pretty much abdicated any significant residual stream from videos because they were an unknown new business, and who the heck knew what they were gonna do? Videos boomed, then DVDs; writers got chump change from this revolution. Ironically, DVD residuals ended up taking a back seat in this negotiation because the Guild was hell-bent on getting Internet residuals.

A stray thought here: What if the real cash comes from DVDs in the next ten years, while downloading and streaming remain small potatoes? Clearly, the "distributors' gross" from the sale of a DVD is going to be far higher than an Internet sale simply because DVDs cost more.

One more stray thought: I think this battle was as much about the past as the future. Knotted deep within the DNA of Hollywood is distrust between writers and suits. Writers always think the suits are trying to screw them over - either financially or creatively; suits think writers are whiny layabouts who dress badly. Both camps hate each other and almost always have - though you have to go way back to the '20s when the first stirrings of this antipathy occurred. It's a fascinating, complex, serpentine story, but I think this latest strike proved (once again and thanks, Faulkner) that the past isn't dead - it isn't even past.